Thirteenth Monthly Report by ANIA and UniNa: The Predictions for 2025

Developed by a joint working group from ANIA (Italian National Association of Insurance Companies) and the Department of Economics and Statistics at the University of Naples Federico II, the goal of the Monthly Report is to track Italian consumer expectations through descriptive statistical analysis of data collected by the “Italian Survey on Consumer Expectations” (ISCE).

This survey investigates consumers' economic and financial choices and their expectations for the future trends of various economic indicators. It also includes a thematic section that varies with each survey wave.

For each ISCE survey, conducted on a quarterly basis, the report provides periodic updates on Italian consumer expectations regarding the macroeconomic and microeconomic landscape, as well as findings from specific thematic sections.

The July 2025 report explores Italian households’ expectations on core macroeconomic variables, based on ISCE survey data collected in April.

The note analyzes data from the survey conducted in April 2025, relating to the expectations of Italian consumers regarding the main macroeconomic and microeconomic variables. It also presents a time-based comparison of these variables with previous quarters, starting from October 2023.
The survey results outline a context characterized by widespread uncertainty, with expectations for the national economy over the next 12 months being more pessimistic than those recorded in previous quarters, alongside expectations of gradual improvement in the unemployment rate.
With regard to the individual and household dimension, Italian consumers expect a contraction in disposable income over the next twelve months, along with an anticipated reduction in interest rates applied to savings instruments.
Although spending intentions remain in positive territory, a slowdown in the growth rate is observed compared to previous surveys.

For detailed information on methodology, content, definitions, and the survey sample, please refer to the Methodological Appendix.
Further insights on the data presented and additional statistical information not included in the report can be found in the Statistical Appendix.

Any questions regarding the data in this publication may be directed via email to grins_spoke3@ania.it.

The information contained in these publications may be used and distributed with appropriate citation of the source. ANIA and UniNa bear no responsibility for any misinterpretation or incorrect conclusions drawn from the information provided.